The French real estate market in the second half of 2026 is characterized by a clear divide between the old properties, which are regaining transactional volume, and the new properties, which are accumulating an increasingly difficult-to-sell stock. Understanding this divergence requires analyzing the price mechanisms, financing arbitrations, and regulatory signals that guide purchasing or holding decisions.
New Housing: The Supply-Demand Imbalance Threatening Ongoing Programs
The standout fact of the second quarter of 2026 is a data point rarely commented on by mainstream portals: reservations by individuals have decreased by about 4.8% compared to the previous quarter, while the listings from developers have increased by about 11%. This gap between supply and demand mechanically inflates the stock of available housing.
For a developer, this situation directly impacts the financial feasibility of operations. A program whose pre-commercialization rate stagnates below the threshold required by the financing bank sees its launch delayed or even canceled. We are already observing launch delays in several regional metropolitan areas where the stock/sales ratio exceeds twelve months.
The consequence on new prices remains to be monitored: developers who need to quickly reduce stock are offering commercial discounts (waived notary fees, discounts on parking), but the face price per square meter has not yet significantly decreased. The price gap between renovated old properties and new ones continues to widen, reinforcing the appeal of older properties for buyers with a constrained budget.
Mortgage Rates and Geopolitical Context: The Spring 2026 Slowdown
At the beginning of 2026, the trajectory of rates seemed favorable. Several field observers describe a sudden turnaround in the spring, linked to the rise in inflation itself fueled by geopolitical tensions (conflict in the Middle East, energy prices). The ECB paused its cycle of lowering key rates, and 10-year OATs rose above 3.5%, pushing bank rates higher.
On the ground, this rise has produced a measurable psychological effect. Buyers who had begun their searches in the first quarter, confident in a continuation of monetary easing, have postponed their decisions. Professionals note that among those following BTB Immobilier news or other sector monitoring, the question of “the right time to buy” has become central again after several months of relative calm.
The usury rate, recalculated quarterly, did not pose a blockage in the first half of the year. The slowdown comes rather from the effort rate of households: with prices only marginally decreasing in the old market and rates rising, borrowing capacity has significantly contracted for first-time buyers.
Transactions in the Old Market: Towards 880,000 Sales by the End of 2026
Despite this context, the volume of transactions in the old market is holding up better than expected. Several analyses converge towards a projection of about 880,000 transactions anticipated by the end of 2026, a figure that marks a recovery from the low of 2024 without returning to the levels of 2021-2022.
This resilience can be explained by several combined factors:
- The catch-up of deferred transactions during the rate increase phase in 2023-2024, with sellers eventually accepting a price adjustment.
- The return of institutional investors to certain segments of the rental market, generating a flow of bulk transactions (entire buildings or grouped lots) that is not visible in individual statistics.
- The demographic pressure on regional metropolitan areas (Lyon, Bordeaux, Nantes, Montpellier), where the demand for family housing remains structurally higher than the available supply.
The Notaires de France confirm that prices in the old market have generally stabilized in the first quarter of 2026, with marked geographical disparities. Paris shows an uncertain trend: after four years of nearly continuous decline, prices have stabilized, but a new source of tension related to credit rates prevents a true rebound.
Île-de-France Market vs. Regional Metropolitan Areas
Île-de-France remains the market most sensitive to rate variations, as the amounts borrowed there are the highest. A 30 basis point increase in the bank rate reduces the purchasing capacity of a household in Île-de-France much more than in Rennes or Toulouse, where median prices are two to three times lower.
We recommend monitoring the gap in gross rental yield between central Paris and medium-sized cities. This indicator, often overlooked in cyclical analyses, increasingly guides the decisions of individual investors who are weighing property valuation against immediate cash flow.
EPC and Regulation: What is Changing for Transactions
The regulatory timeline related to the energy performance diagnosis continues to weigh on the market. The expected changes to the EPC effective January 1, 2027, are now known and are already altering buying-selling behaviors in 2026.
Properties rated G have been banned from rental since January 2025. Their landlord owners face a binary choice: carry out energy renovation work or sell. This constraint fuels a flow of properties being sold at a discount, which pulls prices down in the thermal sieve segment.
For buyers, these properties represent an opportunity as long as they can manage the real cost of renovation. A common pitfall is underestimating the renovation budget based on partial quotes. A complete energy audit, mandatory for single properties rated F or G, provides a more reliable estimate but often remains optimistic about implementation costs.
Impact of the EPC on Price Negotiation
The discount associated with a poor energy label varies according to local markets. In tight areas, it remains moderate as demand absorbs the constraint. In relaxed areas, a property rated F or G can be negotiated at a significant discount compared to an equivalent property rated D.
The second half of 2026 constitutes a window of opportunity for sellers of thermal sieves: it is better to sell now, with a volume of buyer-renovators still present, than to wait for the tightening in 2027, which will extend the ban to properties rated F and further reduce the pool of potential tenants.
